Cannabis Policy Under a New Conservative Government: What’s Next for Canada?

As Canada approaches a potential shift to a Conservative government in 2025, the future of cannabis policy hangs in the balance. Since recreational cannabis was legalized in 2018 under Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, the industry has grown into a multi-billion-dollar sector, employing thousands and reshaping cultural norms. Yet, with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives leading polls, questions swirl about how their pragmatic, small-government ethos might redefine the rules for Canada’s cannabis landscape. Here’s what we might expect—and why it matters.

A Conservative Track Record on Cannabis

The Conservative Party has historically been skeptical of cannabis legalization. In 2018, all but one Tory MP voted against the Cannabis Act, citing concerns over youth access, public safety, and the persistence of the black market. Pierre Poilievre himself opposed the bill, though the party later softened its stance, pledging in 2019 not to reverse legalization if elected. This evolution suggests a pragmatic acceptance of a policy too entrenched to undo—but don’t expect full-throated enthusiasm.

Instead, Conservatives have consistently pushed for tighter controls. Past efforts under Stephen Harper’s government to eliminate medical cannabis home-grow programs—and rhetoric comparing home cultivation to “making fentanyl”—signal a preference for strict oversight. A new Conservative government might not dismantle legalization, but it could tweak it to align with their law-and-order, family-values brand.

Economic Priorities: Boosting the Legal Market

One area where Conservatives might shine is the economy. The cannabis industry employs over 9,000 Canadians and generates significant tax revenue, but producers often complain of high excise taxes and regulatory burdens stifling growth. Poilievre’s promise to cut red tape could translate into streamlined licensing, lower taxes on low-potency products, or incentives for small businesses to compete with corporate giants like Canopy Growth.

Crucially, Conservatives might double down on crushing the illicit market—a goal legalization has only partially achieved. With estimates suggesting illegal sales still rival legal ones, a Tory government could slash prices through tax reform or ramp up enforcement against black-market dealers. This dual approach could appeal to their base while delivering jobs and revenue—key talking points for any government.

Public Health and Youth Protection

Public health remains a Conservative flashpoint. The 2024 Cannabis Act review highlighted rising child poisonings from edibles and gaps in youth prevention—issues that align with Tory rhetoric about safeguarding families. Expect a push for tougher age-verification at retail, limits on THC potency, or expanded education campaigns warning of cannabis risks. These moves could resonate with voters wary of normalization, even if they frustrate industry advocates.

Home cultivation might also face scrutiny. Conservatives have long criticized the four-plant-per-household rule, arguing it fuels diversion to illegal channels. While a total ban seems unlikely given public support, stricter monitoring or penalties for misuse could emerge as a compromise.

Innovation and Social Consumption

Could Conservatives embrace cannabis innovation? The idea of cannabis lounges—think social hubs akin to bars—has simmered since legalization, but provinces have moved slowly. A Conservative government might greenlight private-sector pilots, framing it as a win for business freedom while imposing tight rules to avoid public backlash. This could diversify the market and attract younger voters, a demographic Tories often struggle to win.

Edibles and beverages, already legal, might see a lighter tax touch to promote safer alternatives to smoking. It’s a pragmatic pivot that could align with health goals while boosting industry profits—a rare overlap of Conservative and cannabis interests.

The Global Lens: Canada as a Cannabis Leader

Canada’s cannabis experiment is watched worldwide, from Germany’s recent legalization to U.S. states refining their models. A Conservative government could leverage this by pushing exports or aligning regulations for trade—a move fitting Poilievre’s economic nationalism. Learning from Colorado’s tourism boom or Uruguay’s state-controlled approach, Canada might refine its framework to stay competitive.

Yet, the Tories’ instinct for caution could temper bold leaps. The 2024 review criticized Canada’s prioritization of big business over equity for marginalized communities—a critique Conservatives might sidestep rather than tackle head-on.

What’s at Stake in 2025

As the Cannabis Act’s overdue review looms, a Conservative government will inherit a system ripe for reform. Will they lean into economic pragmatism, trimming fat to grow the legal market? Or will they tighten the reins, prioritizing safety over expansion? The answer likely lies in a mix of both—reflecting a party that’s accepted cannabis as a fixture but wants it on their terms.

For Canadians, the stakes are high. Legalization has slashed cannabis convictions by 95% and shifted adult buying to regulated channels, but the black market persists, and public health gaps remain. A Conservative pivot could either cement Canada’s cannabis leadership or stall its momentum. As 2025 nears, the industry—and voters—will be watching closely.